US debt held by the public reached 100% of gross domestic product for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, the first time since 1946, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.
The Journal calculated the US national debt percentage of GDP at 100.03%, using third-quarter GDP figures released Thursday, according to a summary of the report by the financial site 247wallst. The reading is provisional. A small revision to the GDP data could move it back below the line.
The milestone reaches beyond Washington's budget. Outside lenders set the price of federal borrowing, and the long-term Treasury yields that drive the government's interest bill also help set the rates families pay on mortgages and other long-term loans. Both the 10-year and 30-year yields are now above 5%.
What percentage of GDP is the US public debt right now?
The government reported $32.2 trillion in publicly held debt as of Sept. 30, the Journal said. Measured against GDP for the fiscal year, that came to 100.03%.
The ratio was 99.4% at the end of fiscal 2025, according to the Journal. The latest result came in below the Congressional Budget Office's February forecast of 100.6%.
The country had already crossed 100% once this year on a different measure. The Journal reported that the US hit that level in an intrayear calculation earlier in 2026. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, as cited by Fortune, put the trailing ratio at 100.2% at the end of March. That trailing measure differs from the official fiscal-year figure.
The fiscal-year number is not yet final. The Journal noted that revisions to third-quarter GDP or changes in how the Treasury issues debt could still change the ratio. Because the figure sits so close to 100%, a small revision could push it to either side of the line.
The public debt measure is different from the more widely cited total. Gross federal debt recently passed $40 trillion, but that figure includes money one part of the government owes another, such as Treasury securities held in the Social Security trust fund.
Economists prefer debt held by the public because it better measures the burden of borrowing, the Journal reported. That debt is owed to outside lenders, and those lenders set the price the government pays to borrow.
Debt held by the public at 100% of GDP, first time since 1946
The record is 106%, set in 1946 after the government borrowed to pay for World War II. Harry Truman was president that year, which makes President Trump the first president since Truman to see the fiscal-year ratio this high. The 247wallst report said the comparison "marks the date and places no blame."
The Journal links the debt to decades of tax cuts, emergency spending and an aging population under both parties. In 2000 the ratio stood at 33.7% and was falling, the Journal reported. The government was running surpluses at the time, helped by a strong economy, spending restraint and capital-gains taxes from the dot-com boom.
Congress then passed multiple tax cuts and raised spending in response to the Sept. 11 attacks, the 2008–2009 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Over the same period, an aging population pushed up Social Security and Medicare costs.
The Journal put the fiscal 2026 deficit at nearly $2 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP. Deficits that large are unusual outside of wars, recessions and emergencies.
How Treasury yields above 5% keep mortgage rates high
Interest costs are the main pressure point. The CBO projects net interest costs will rise by more than 1% of GDP over the next decade. That forecast assumed interest rates well below current levels.
On Oct. 28, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.05% and the 30-year yield at 5.37%. By the Journal's math, rates running just 0.1 percentage point above the CBO's forecasts would add $379 billion in interest over a decade.
Households feel those yields directly. Lenders use them as benchmarks when they set rates on mortgages and other long-term loans. A 10-year yield that stays above 5% keeps borrowing costs high for home buyers as well as for the Treasury.
What happens to the Social Security trust fund in 2032?
Retirees face a separate deadline. The Social Security Trustees project that the retirement trust fund will run out in 2032. After that, only 78% of scheduled benefits could be paid unless Congress acts.
CBO Director Phillip Swagel described the political obstacle at an event this month, according to the Journal.
"I think there is understanding about the challenging fiscal trajectory. Of course, the difficulty is that the U.S. is a divided country and a divided society and we're divided politically."
The reports did not include any official reaction from the Treasury or the White House.
According to the 247wallst analysis, three factors will decide where the ratio goes next:
- GDP revisions: a change to third-quarter output could move the figure back below 100%.
- Interest rates: if long-term Treasury yields stay near 5%, interest costs will keep running above what the CBO assumed.
- Congress: lawmakers must deal with the Social Security shortfall before 2032 or accept automatic benefit cuts.
Revised third-quarter GDP data will show whether the 100.03% reading stands or slips back under 100%.