Bangladesh should press for grant-based climate finance, not more loans, at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, climate finance expert M. Zakir Hossain Khan told The Climate Watch in an interview published Friday.
Khan, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Change Initiative, said Bangladesh is increasingly being forced to borrow to survive a crisis it did not create. A separate opinion piece in The Daily Star, by a Khulna-raised researcher travelling with Monash University's delegation, made a related argument from the ground: cyclone deaths have fallen sharply, but families still lose their incomes.
Neither piece sets out the official position of Bangladesh's government delegation. Both are the views of an independent expert and an academic ahead of the 31st UN Climate Change Conference. The research does not give the conference's exact dates.
How much climate finance does Bangladesh need under NDC 3.0?
According to The Climate Watch, Bangladesh's NDC 3.0 estimates that $116.18 billion is needed for mitigation by 2035. Of that, $90.23 billion is expected to come from international support. The estimate does not cover the country's full adaptation needs.
"The gap is not a shortfall; it is a structural deficit," Khan said. He said about three-quarters of the mitigation plan depends on funding Bangladesh cannot mobilize itself.
Khan called adaptation the larger and more urgent bill. He gave these figures in the interview:
- Adaptation needs: about $8.5 billion per year
- International adaptation finance flows: about $0.4 billion per year
- Share of climate spending funded domestically: about 75%
- Annual losses: about $3 billion
- Water-sector finance: about US$7.78 in loans for every US$1 in grants
He said Bangladesh fills the adaptation gap from its own budget. Losses of about $3 billion a year, he said, hit the country before repairs from earlier damage are complete.
Khan cited the 2026-27 El Niño event as an example, with heat, drought, disease and fishing stress arriving at the same time and each bringing additional costs. He also said global fossil fuel price surges have made Bangladesh's economy more fragile and more prone to debt traps.
Why is Bangladesh asking for climate grants instead of loans?
Bangladesh contributes little to global greenhouse gas emissions but faces large costs for adaptation and the low-carbon transition, The Climate Watch noted. Khan argues that money spent on survival should not add to the country's debt.
"Make adaptation and loss and damage finance grants-only to avoid treating survival finance as debt," he said.
The same point came up at Pre-COP31 meetings in Fiji, according to The Daily Star op-ed. The author joined discussions in Nadi with colleagues from Monash University's Pacific Action for Climate Transitions (PACT). The author wrote that Pacific representatives were clear that countries which have contributed little to global warming should not have to take on more debt to cope with its consequences.
The op-ed said Pacific island states and Bangladesh face different circumstances. Some island states face threats to their long-term habitability, while Bangladesh must protect a large population in a densely settled delta. Both depend on vulnerable land and water, where saltwater intrusion can change what farmers grow and where families find safe drinking water.
Zakir Hossain Khan's climate finance demands for COP31 Antalya
In the interview, part of the "Shakti–The Climate Watch COP31 Dialogue Series" and conducted by Executive Editor Md Ibrahim Khalilullah, Khan proposed that Bangladesh seek:
- A common definition of climate finance that excludes relabelled official development assistance
- Reporting of finance at grant-equivalent value rather than the face value of loans
- Grants-only adaptation and loss and damage finance
- Access to concessional and grant windows based on vulnerability rather than least developed country status
- A blue carbon and delta retention facility, with at least 20% for communities
Khan also referred to a US$750 million pledge and said its replenishment should be grants-only and based on existing needs. The interview does not make clear which fund that pledge refers to.
How did Cyclone Aila affect families in southwestern Bangladesh?
The Daily Star op-ed author, who is not named in the available excerpt, grew up in Khulna near the Sundarbans. The author wrote that villages there were later hit by Cyclone Sidr in 2007 and Cyclone Aila in 2009.
The author wrote that Aila's effects lasted long after the storm, as damaged embankments and saltwater intrusion disrupted farming and drinking-water supplies.
The author credited Bangladesh's cyclone shelters, early warning systems and community volunteers for what sustained preparedness investment can achieve. Citing the World Bank's 2022 climate and development report, the op-ed said cyclone-related deaths in Bangladesh have fallen a hundredfold since 1970.
"Yet a family can survive a disaster and still lose its livelihood," the author wrote. The op-ed said mortality statistics cannot capture the months spent searching for work, rebuilding homes or repaying emergency loans.
The author's research on households affected by Aila found that disaster exposure within a household's social network mattered for its later income and investment decisions. A second study found that disaster-affected participants were less likely than unaffected participants to withdraw from experimental risk-sharing groups.
The author wrote that such mutual support cannot replace resources lost across a whole community. "Public assistance remains essential, particularly for families with limited social connections or support networks," the author wrote.
The op-ed said Bangladesh's exposure reaches well beyond the coast. Floods and river erosion displace households, drought threatens farming and extreme heat makes outdoor work dangerous. Citing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, it said heavier rainfall is projected with tropical cyclones, along with a higher share of the most intense storms globally, though regional differences remain.
The author wrote that he will travel to Antalya with Monash University's delegation. Whether developed countries will commit grant-based adaptation and loss and damage finance there is still an open question.