Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc leads former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's opposition alliance with most votes counted from Tuesday's election, but neither side has a parliamentary majority, partial Israel election results show.
Partial results give Netanyahu's bloc 54 seats and the opposition alliance led by Eisenkot 49, Al Jazeera reported. A government needs 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset.
On paper, the numbers favor an alliance between Eisenkot and Arab-led parties, which are projected to win a record 17 seats. The politics point the other way. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have rejected partnering with the Arab parties, citing a lack of shared values. The count is also unfinished: between 430,000 and 480,000 absentee ballots, cast primarily by military personnel, are expected to be counted by Thursday afternoon.
Who can reach the 61 seats needed for a Knesset coalition?
On current figures, Netanyahu's bloc is seven seats short of a majority and Eisenkot's alliance is 12 short. According to The Times of Israel, as cited by Al Jazeera, the latest partial results would give a partnership between Eisenkot's alliance and the Arab-led parties 66 seats.
The BBC's chief international correspondent, Lyse Doucet, reported from Jerusalem that deadlock looms. She noted that Eisenkot has previously raised objections to, or attached conditions to, an alliance with Arab parties, and that right-wing parties within his own ranks have flatly rejected the idea.
Netanyahu's options are also narrow. Doucet wrote that a partnership between Netanyahu and an Arab party is highly unlikely, after his Likud party accused the Arab parties of stealing the election. One open question is whether he can win back right-wing politicians who previously left his fold and joined the so-called change camp to unseat him.
There are calls for a national unity government, the BBC reported. However, Eisenkot has declared Netanyahu unfit to rule.
Eisenkot's party, Yashar, was formed only last year. The name means straight or direct. President Isaac Herzog, who will select someone to try to form a coalition, has warned parties to approach the process with open minds, according to the BBC.
Why Arab parties Joint List and Ra'am may not be kingmakers
The latest projections show the two Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, could hold a record combined 17 seats, Al Jazeera reported.
"Probably the most important phenomenon of this election is the rise and the revival of the Arab vote," Daniel Shek, a former Israeli ambassador, told Al Jazeera.
Observers told Al Jazeera that the resistance of most Israeli parties to forming a government with Arab-led lists amounts to a political veto. That veto limits the Arab parties' ability to turn electoral gains into influence.
"This veto is rooted in a racist structure that regards the Arab citizen as illegitimate and as an unwanted partner," said Honaida Ghanam, director general of the Palestinian Forum for Israeli Studies in Ramallah.
Palestinian political analyst Ahmed Najar told Al Jazeera that the opposition's reluctance is ideological, and that a partnership with Arab parties may be the only realistic route for Eisenkot to remove Netanyahu.
"Eisenkot has imposed loyalty tests on Arab parties and ruled out relying on them even as the electoral arithmetic makes their support indispensable," Najar said.
Najar said Eisenkot would also have to persuade prospective partners Naftali Bennett of the Together alliance and Avigdor Liberman, who heads Yisrael Beytenu. He described a longstanding Zionist consensus that Palestinian citizens of Israel may vote but that the parties representing them are not legitimate governing partners.
What the Arab parties are offering
Joint Arab List leader Yousef Jabareen told the BBC that Arab Israelis were motivated to vote by the chance to remove far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir from office and to improve their daily lives.
"I think that one of the main reasons why the turnout in our community was very high is basically the belief that we could get rid of Ben-Gvir because of all his racist and fascist attitudes and action, his provocation against our community, including here in Umm al-Fahm when he came here to deliver house demolition orders," Jabareen said, referring to the Arab-majority city in northern Israel where he lives.
He accused the Netanyahu government of systematic discrimination against the Arab minority, which makes up about a fifth of the population. He cited the blocking of resource allocation, the failure to police gang violence, home demolitions and racist statements.
Jabareen said his party was ready to negotiate with Jewish opposition parties to help them form a government, and that it had its own demands. On Wednesday, fellow Joint List leader Ahmad Tibi said the bloc was extending its hand to the opposition alliance to oust Netanyahu, according to Israeli media reports cited by Al Jazeera. It was far from clear, however, that the bloc would formally join a coalition.
Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has shown willingness to join an Eisenkot government, on condition that the Arab party handles internal security matters, according to Omar Shaban, director of Palthink for Strategic Studies. Abbas appointed Jewish lawmaker Yoav Segalovitz to the number two spot on Ra'am's electoral slate, Shaban told Al Jazeera.
When will the final Israel election results be known?
The absentee vote is the main remaining variable. According to the central elections committee, between 430,000 and 480,000 absentee ballots were cast. That is fewer than the 600,000 previously estimated, and the figure is subject to change as officials continue to receive and process ballots, the BBC reported.
Each Knesset seat is thought to be worth around 40,000 votes, so the absentee ballots are equivalent to about 12 seats, The Times of Israel reported, according to the BBC.
- Tuesday: Israelis voted
- Wednesday: Most votes counted; Netanyahu bloc 54 seats, Eisenkot alliance 49
- Thursday afternoon: Absentee ballots, mostly from soldiers, expected to be counted
- After the count: President Herzog selects a candidate to try to form a coalition
The election is the first major test for Netanyahu since the 7 October 2023 attacks. His opponents blame him for failing to prevent them, while his supporters still call him "Bibi, King of Israel," the BBC reported.
Herzog has not said whom he will ask to try to form a government.