President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to a record-low 32% and Democrats lead Republicans by 10 points on the congressional ballot, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS and released October 21.
The survey is the latest of the midterm elections 2026 polls to show the Democratic advantage widening as the campaign enters its final stretch, CNN reported.
The findings matter because the election comes nearly two years into unified Republican control of the federal government. More than three-quarters of voters see it as their chance to change things up in Washington, the poll found. CNN also cautioned that a large national lead may not produce equally large Democratic gains in the House.
Democrats vs Republicans generic ballot: a 49% to 39% lead
Among registered voters nationally, Democrats lead 49% to 39% when asked which party they will support in their own congressional district. According to CNN, that is the largest Democratic advantage in its polling since just before the 2020 election.
The lead rests on wide margins among groups that have traditionally backed Democrats, along with independents and the most motivated voters. Democrats' advantage by group, according to the poll:
- Black voters: +70 percentage points
- Latino voters: +40
- Younger adults: +31
- Women: +21
- Voters extremely motivated to vote: +18
- Independents: +15
CNN reported that the Democratic lead has held over the past year and widened in recent polling. Roughly 6 in 10 voters say their midterm vote will send a message about Trump, and by a 2-to-1 margin that message is opposition rather than support.
Why a 10-point lead may not mean a 10-point House wave
A 10-point Democratic margin in the national popular vote would represent roughly a 13-point swing from the nationwide House popular vote in 2024, according to CNN.
CNN said the scale of potential Democratic gains could still be limited by two factors. One is mid-decade redistricting. The other is that many of this year's competitive races are in places Trump carried by double digits, where even a large national swing may not be enough to flip seats.
For voters, that means the national ballot question and control of the House are separate tests. The poll measures preference across the country, while seats are decided district by district under maps that have been redrawn in some states before the usual once-a-decade schedule.
Prices, deportations and the economy weigh on Trump
Cost-of-living concerns remain voters' most important issue, CNN reported. Among registered voters who call the economy their top concern, Democrats lead 46% to 37%, and Democrats are seen as the party better able to handle the economy and cost of living.
That advantage has limits. Roughly 3 in 10 voters say neither party would do a good job on those issues, and a similar share say neither party has the right priorities. Some voters expressed skepticism that a Democratic win would bring meaningful improvement, according to CNN.
Trump's ratings on economic issues trail his overall rating. Just 27% approve of his handling of the economy and 23% approve of his handling of inflation. Two-thirds of Americans, including roughly one-third of Republicans, say his policies have made economic conditions worse.
The poll points in different directions on presidential action. Majorities say Trump has gone too far in using presidential power and in overseeing deportations. Nearly 7 in 10 say he has not gone far enough in trying to reduce prices.
After the economy, the only other issues cited by more than 10% of voters as their top concern are corruption in government, at 19%, and the state of US democracy, at 18%. About 4 in 10 say neither party would do a better job handling corruption, while those with a preference give a slight edge to Democrats.
Trump approval rating record low, and a sharp shift since 2018
The 32% approval figure is a new low by one point in CNN polling and is 7 points below Trump's rating just before the 2018 midterms. The share who strongly approve of his presidency stands at 13%, down 17 points from his last midterms.
The national mood has also changed since then. In autumn 2018, 55% said things in the US were generally going well and 69% called economic conditions good. Those figures now stand at 30% and 26%.
In 2018, the economy was a bright spot for Trump, with most approving of his handling of it even as his overall ratings were underwater. CNN reported that it is now the factor most weighing him down, and that the collapse in economic sentiment has eroded his base during his second term.
The poll's sample size, field dates and margin of error were not included in the material reviewed for this report. Still unanswered is whether the 10-point lead holds through Election Day and shows up in the actual popular vote, and how many seats Democrats could gain under redrawn maps in districts Trump won by double digits.